The Washington Post wonders if the US has fallen into a new recession. The motivation for asking is the stall-speed growth in first-quarter GDP, which increased by a slim 0.2%. The fractional gain is quoted in quarter-over-quarter terms, which is the standard reference. By that measure, there’s virtually no growth. But are quarterly comparisons the best way to measure GDP in search of macro danger? It’s a timely question because the annual change in GDP through this year’s first quarter reflects a substantially stronger trend. In fact, GDP’s 3.0% year-over-year advance in Q1 accelerated, rising at the strongest pace in more than a year.
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● Pickup in Service Industries Points to U.S. Growth Rebound: ISM | Bloomberg
● US service sector jobs growth accelerates to 10-month high in April: PMI | Markit
● US Trade Deficit at 6-Year-High | US&WR
● Eurozone March retail sales weaker than expected | Reuters
● Eurozone growth continues as output rises across big-four nations: PMI | Markit
● Chinese business activity growth driven by service sector in April: PMI | Markit
● EU Boosts Eurozone Growth & Inflation Outlook On Positive Tailwinds | RTT

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 195,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s April update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median projection represents a slightly higher increase vs. February’s rise.
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Chicago Fed President Charles Evans recommends waiting until 2016 to start raising interest rates. The tipping point, he advised in a speech yesterday, should be compelling evidence that wages are rising in a robust degree. For the moment, that evidence is lacking, he noted. Yet it’s not obvious that the Treasury market agrees with Evans. Yields on government bonds are still trending higher, despite a mixed batch of economic reports in recent weeks.
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● US factory orders rebound solidly, but trend still soft | Reuters
● Global Manufacturing PMI falls to 21-month low | Markit
● Eurozone producer prices pick up | MarketWatch
● Reserve Bank of Australia cuts official cash rate to record low 2% | SMH
● Inflation Expectations Tick Up | WSJ
● EU Raises Growth Outlook as ECB Counters Greek Threat | Bloomberg

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in April, dipping for the second straight month. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.7% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, slipped 10 basis points from last month’s 3.8% projection.
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● US Automakers Report Higher Sales In April | RTT
● US ISM manufacturing index flat in April but hiring turns negative | MarketWatch
● Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Rises to Second-Highest Since 2007 | Bloomberg
● US construction spending hits six-month low in March | Reuters
● Eurozone sentiment deteriorates slightly in May: Sentix | Reuters
● Eurozone manufacturing expansion continues in April: PMI | Markit
● China’s mfg. operating conditions deteriorate at strongest rate in a year | Markit
● Germany’s April mfg. output and new orders rise at weaker rates: PMI | Markit
● French mfg. sector remains stuck in contraction during April: PMI | Markit
● PMI shows Italy’s manufacturing sector growing at fastest pace for a year | Markit
● Spain’s manufacturing new order growth accelerates | Markit

Please note that the returns for the Global Market Index (GMI) and its rebalanced version (GMI-R) were overstated in Friday’s monthly update for April 2015. The actual returns are in fact modestly lower. The corrected performance data for GMI and GMI-R are shown below. Apologies for any inconvenience.
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● Pedigree: How Elite Students Get Elite Jobs
By Lauren A. Rivera
Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
Americans are taught to believe that upward mobility is possible for anyone who is willing to work hard, regardless of their social status, yet it is often those from affluent backgrounds who land the best jobs. Pedigree takes readers behind the closed doors of top-tier investment banks, consulting firms, and law firms to reveal the truth about who really gets hired for the nation’s highest-paying entry-level jobs, who doesn’t, and why.
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Correction: Please note that the returns for the Global Market Index (GMI) and its rebalanced version (GMI-R) were overstated in an earlier version of the monthly update for April 2015. The actual returns are in fact modestly lower. The corrected performance data for GMI and GMI-R are shown in the table below. The original reference to GMI’s monthly return in the text has been corrected as well. Apologies for any inconvenience.
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