● US job gains accelerate but wage growth is meager | LA Times
● GDPNow forecast of US Q2 growth (as of May 5): +0.8% | Atlanta Fed
● Euro zone set to report solid growth, for a change | Reuters
● China Cuts Interest Rates as Economic Growth Slows | WSJ
● Greece Readies for Another Week of Deadlines | Bloomberg

● Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future
By Martin Ford
Review via FT
Martin Ford has seen the future, and it doesn’t work. To be more precise, it generates wealth while obliterating demand for work. “Go West, young man”, was the career advice of the 19th century. Today’s equivalent is “get an engineering degree”. Alas, the latter is not as rewarding as the former. A third of Americans who graduated in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and maths) are in jobs that do not require any such degree. Up and down the US there are programmers working as fast-food servers. In the age of artificial intelligence, they will only drift further into obsolescence, says Ford.
Continue reading →

The private sector added 213,000 jobs in April, delivering a hefty gain after a disturbingly soft rise in March, the Labor Department reports. Indeed, the government’s revised data for March shows that US companies increased payrolls by only 94,000, substantially less than the initial estimate of a 129,000 rise. The main takeaway, however, is obvious: job creation picked up dramatically last month. The news suggests that the sharp slowdown in March was an anomaly. As for deciding whether the economy is again headed for a period of modest growth or something stronger, today’s data still leaves room for debate.
Continue reading →

Every time someone comes up with a “new and improved” way to invest or predict which active managers will shine, it seems that subsequent research finds that it’s really just about focusing on different betas. The latest example is a new study (“Deactivating Active Share”) from AQR, a quantitative money manager, which documents that it’s (still) all about beta when it comes to looking for clues about which active managers are more likely to deliver statistically significant alpha.
Continue reading →

● UK election: David Cameron’s Conservative Party predicted to win majority | CNN
● US jobless claims hover near 15-year low, boost growth outlook | Reuters
● Consumer Comfort in U.S. Declines to Lowest Level in 8 Weeks | Bloomberg
● Consumer credit jumps $20.5 billion in March | MarketWatch
● German Industrial Production Falls as Economy Risks Grow | Bloomberg
● German Exports Rise More Than Forecast | RTT
● China April Trade Disappoints; Govt Warns of Unstable Exports | MNI
● Italy Industrial Production Climbs More Than Expected | RTT
● MNI Survey: Japan Q1 GDP +1.6% Annualized, 2nd Straight Rise | MNI

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 200,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s April update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a substantially stronger increase vs. the 129,000 gain in March.
Continue reading →

Maintaining an optimistic outlook on the US economy has been a bit tougher lately. But one indicator has continued to shine while others have stumbled: initial jobless claims. The upbeat trend continues with today’s release. New filings for unemployment benefits inched higher last week, but remain close to a 15-year low. Although some data sets are looking wobbly these days, new claims are a conspicuous exception and still point to ongoing growth for the labor market.
Continue reading →

Has the red-hot momentum in sector ETFs run its course for this cycle?  Or is the latest speed bump one more temporary detour before the rally resumes? All but one of the major US equity sector ETFs are still sitting on gains for the trailing one-year period (252 trading days). Yet several ETFs have recently closed below their 50-day moving average for the first time since February. It may turn out to be noise, but the current weakness comes in the wake of mixed economic news, which suggests that concern about the US macro trend is a factor in the latest round of selling.
Continue reading →

● ADP: Second Consecutive Sub-200k Job Month In April for US | USN&WR
● US Job Creation Index Reaches New High of +31 | Gallup
● Biggest US Productivity Drop in Decades Sends Ugly Omen | Bloomberg
● Eurozone retail PMI posts highest reading for 10 months in April | Markit
● Solid growth of global economic output and new orders in April | Markit
● German Factory Orders Recover In March | RTT
● France March Industrial Production Falls Unexpectedly | RTT

Private-sector payrolls increased by a sluggish 169,000 in April, according to this morning’s release of the ADP Employment Report. The rise is the weakest gain in 15 months and well below the 200,000-plus increase that was expected via Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. The weak raises new questions about the health of the US economy and what to expect in Friday’s official jobs report from the Labor Department.
Continue reading →