Consumer spending was unchanged in April vs. the previous month, according to this morning’s release of the government’s retail sales report. Last month’s flat performance follows a strong rise of 1.1% in March, which suggests that a degree of payback may explain April’s lackluster results. Even so, it’s hard to overlook the deceleration in growth in the year-over-year comparison. Whatever’s weighing on retail sales, it’s looking increasingly pervasive and beyond a mere seasonal bump.
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The US economic trend remains moderately positive as of early May, based on a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +6.7% yesterday (May 12), a middling value relative to the benchmark’s range for the year so far. The moderately positive reading implies that business cycle risk remains low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated; readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future.
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● March US job openings decline to 4.99 million | MarketWatch
● US Retail Sales Flat in 1st Week of May From April: Redbook | Nasdaq
● US Small-Business Owners Were More Upbeat and Ready to Hire in April | WSJ
● Eurozone Q1 GDP Growth Picks Up | RTT
● German economy slows more than expected in Q1 as trade drags | Reuters
● French Q1 GDP increased strongly: +0.6% after 0.0% | Insee
● Eurozone industrial production decelerated in March | FT