Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 200,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s April update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a substantially stronger increase vs. the 129,000 gain in March.
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Maintaining an optimistic outlook on the US economy has been a bit tougher lately. But one indicator has continued to shine while others have stumbled: initial jobless claims. The upbeat trend continues with today’s release. New filings for unemployment benefits inched higher last week, but remain close to a 15-year low. Although some data sets are looking wobbly these days, new claims are a conspicuous exception and still point to ongoing growth for the labor market.
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Has the red-hot momentum in sector ETFs run its course for this cycle?  Or is the latest speed bump one more temporary detour before the rally resumes? All but one of the major US equity sector ETFs are still sitting on gains for the trailing one-year period (252 trading days). Yet several ETFs have recently closed below their 50-day moving average for the first time since February. It may turn out to be noise, but the current weakness comes in the wake of mixed economic news, which suggests that concern about the US macro trend is a factor in the latest round of selling.
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● ADP: Second Consecutive Sub-200k Job Month In April for US | USN&WR
● US Job Creation Index Reaches New High of +31 | Gallup
● Biggest US Productivity Drop in Decades Sends Ugly Omen | Bloomberg
● Eurozone retail PMI posts highest reading for 10 months in April | Markit
● Solid growth of global economic output and new orders in April | Markit
● German Factory Orders Recover In March | RTT
● France March Industrial Production Falls Unexpectedly | RTT