Private-sector payrolls increased by a sluggish 169,000 in April, according to this morning’s release of the ADP Employment Report. The rise is the weakest gain in 15 months and well below the 200,000-plus increase that was expected via Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. The weak raises new questions about the health of the US economy and what to expect in Friday’s official jobs report from the Labor Department.
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The Washington Post wonders if the US has fallen into a new recession. The motivation for asking is the stall-speed growth in first-quarter GDP, which increased by a slim 0.2%. The fractional gain is quoted in quarter-over-quarter terms, which is the standard reference. By that measure, there’s virtually no growth. But are quarterly comparisons the best way to measure GDP in search of macro danger? It’s a timely question because the annual change in GDP through this year’s first quarter reflects a substantially stronger trend. In fact, GDP’s 3.0% year-over-year advance in Q1 accelerated, rising at the strongest pace in more than a year.
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● Pickup in Service Industries Points to U.S. Growth Rebound: ISM | Bloomberg
● US service sector jobs growth accelerates to 10-month high in April: PMI | Markit
● US Trade Deficit at 6-Year-High | US&WR
● Eurozone March retail sales weaker than expected | Reuters
● Eurozone growth continues as output rises across big-four nations: PMI | Markit
● Chinese business activity growth driven by service sector in April: PMI | Markit
● EU Boosts Eurozone Growth & Inflation Outlook On Positive Tailwinds | RTT