● Fed’s labor-markets conditions index slows in February | MarketWatch
● Conference Board’s US Employment Trends Index Edged Down in March | CB
● US services sector growth slows a bit; executives still upbeat | Biz Journals
● PMI: Sharpest increase in US services sector output since Aug 2014 | Markit
● PMI: Eurozone growth improved in March | Markit

Friday’s disappointing news for US payrolls in March — the smallest gain in more than a year — has launched a new debate about the economy’s strength. It’s premature to assume too much from the latest monthly change, in part because year-over-year growth in payrolls is still robust, as I discussed last week. Nonetheless, the crowd (and the Fed) will be considerably more sensitive to incoming data in the search for fresh clues about what, if anything, the latest payrolls numbers mean for adjusting the near-term outlook. One market-based measure that’s worthy of monitoring for this task: the  term-premium adjusted real (inflation-adjusted) yield for the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note.
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● 5 reasons the U.S. economy isn’t catching fire | DMN
● The trend in corporate profits in America is worrying | The Economist
● Asia up after dismal U.S. jobs data, dollar pressured | Reuters
● Oil rebounds as Iran exports seen taking months to ramp up | MarketWatch
● Japan Leading Index Falls Less Than Expected In February | RTT

● Beat the Crowd: How You Can Out-Invest the Herd by Thinking Differently
By Kenneth L. Fisher with Elisabeth Dellinger
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Beat the Crowd is the real contrarian’s guide to investing, with comprehensive explanations of how a true contrarian investor thinks and acts – and why it works more often than not. Bestselling author Ken Fisher breaks down the myths and cuts through the noise to present a clear, unvarnished view of timeless market realities, and the ways in which a contrarian approach to investing will outsmart the herd. In true Ken Fisher style, the book explains why the crowd often goes astray—and how you can stay on track. Contrarians understand how headlines really affect the market and which noise and fads they should tune out. Beat the Crowd is a primer to the contrarian strategy, teaching readers simple tricks to think differently and get it right more often than not.
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The US labor market hit a rather large speed bump in March, decelerating to the slowest pace of growth since Dec. 2013, the Labor Department reports. Companies added a sluggish 129,000 jobs last month, far below the 240,000 gain that economists predicted via Econoday.com’s consensus forecast and the revised 264,000 gain for February.
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● US Jobless claims fall 20,000 to 268,000, near post-recession low | MarketWatch
● The pace of US job cuts slows significantly in March | Challenger
● US factory orders rise in Feb, breaking 6-mo losing streat | USN&WR
● Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP forecast for US falls to 0% | Atlanta Fed
● US Mortgage Rates Steady As Spring Buying Season Starts | RTT
● China’s services sector expands in March, job growth at 10-mth low | Reuters

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 256,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s March update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The monthly prediction reflects a substantial deceleration in growth vs. the 288,000 gain in February.
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Today’s update on new filings for unemployment benefits in the US provides upbeat news in the wake of yesterday’s disappointing release on private payrolls for March via the ADP Employment Report. Whereas the ADP data point to a slowdown in the labor market’s growth rate, today’s initial jobless claims figures suggest the opposite. Indeed, claims unexpectedly fell a hefty 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week through Mar. 28 — close to a post-recession low. If there’s trouble brewing in the labor market, there’s no sign of it in today’s claims data.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) slipped in the March estimate. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.8% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, dipped 20 basis points from the previous month’s 4.0% projection.
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● ADP: US job growth in private sector slows sharply in March | LA Times
● US construction spending slips for 2nd month in Feb | Housingwire
● Doubts over US growth cool dollar rally | Reuters
● ISM: US Mfg Growth in March at Slowest Rate in Nearly 2 Years | IW
● PMI: Sharpest improvement in US mfg conditions in March for 5 months | Markit
● US Auto Sales Slow After Months of Healthy Growth | NY Times
● US mortgage applications surge on spring demand in late-March | CNBC
● PMI: Global manufacturing expands at modest pace in March | Markit