● The Fed Can Be Patient About Raising Interest Rates | Alan Blinder (WSJ)
● The $9 Trillion Short That’s Seen Sending the Dollar Even Higher | Bloomberg
● China growth seen slowing to 6.9% in Q1: AFP survey | CNA
● World Bank Sees Slower Growth For Developing East Asia | RTT
● China’s March exports shrink 15% y/y in shock fall | Reuters
● BOJ Kuroda: Japan Economy to Continue Moderate Recovery | MNI
● Oil surges above $59 as traders cover short positions | Reuters
● Italy’s Feb Industrial Output Increased 0.6% in February | Istat

● Generation Jobless?: Turning the youth unemployment crisis into opportunity
By Peter Vogel
Summary via publisher (Palgrave Macmillan)
Generation Jobless? uniquely explores the characteristics of both today’s and tomorrow’s youth and the causes of the youth unemployment crisis. The book takes a global, multi-stakeholder perspective to showcase proven solutions to tackle the crisis. Featuring interviews and input from business leaders, policy makers, educators, entrepreneurs and the Next Generation itself, it offers a positive and constructive look at change by directing each group to become part of the solution and in particular youth to take on responsibility for themselves and their peers by turning into job creators rather than job seekers.
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A week has passed since we learned that the growth rate for US payrolls in March suffered a dramatic slowdown for the monthly comparison. The annual pace is still robust, but that didn’t stop some pundits from announcing that the macro apocalypse has arrived. But the incoming numbers for this week beg to differ. Reading all the key reports since Monday implies that the weak March profile for the labor market represents a temporary stumble rather than an early warning of deeper trouble ahead. In short, the outlook for moderate economic growth remains a compelling forecast until the data says otherwise.
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The outlook for the US economy improved a bit in early April, signaling continued growth for the near term, according to a markets-based estimate of the macro trend. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at just over +8.0% yesterday (Apr. 9), the highest since late-Feb. The benchmark’s moderately positive readings suggest that  business cycle risk remains low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated; readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future.
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● US jobless claims data point to strengthening labor market | Reuters
● US Consumer Comfort Index Climbs to Highest Level Since 2007 | Bloomberg
● French industrial production flat, but beats views | MarketWatch
● UK Industrial Output Rises For First Time In 3 Months | RTT
● Spain’s Industrial Output Growth Accelerates | RTT
● Emerging market stocks look more resilient to a Fed rate hike | Reuters

Morningstar yesterday wondered if emerging markets are a buy? A number of money managers seem to think so, based on decisions to overweight this slice of the global equity pie. Some strategists have been recommending emerging markets (EM) as a value play for months. The results to date have been disappointing, although the recent pop in widely held ETFs in this space hint at the potential for something better in the months (years?) ahead.
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● Fed minutes: Don’t expect a summer interest rate hike | Fortune
● Eurozone Retail Sales In Feb Fall After Four Straight Monthly Rises | WSJ
● German February Industrial Output, Exports Recover | RTT
● China’s Q1 economic growth seen at 6-year low of 7% | Reuters
● Bank Of France Revises Up Q1 Growth Estimate To 0.4% | RTT
● Switzerland: first country to sell 10-year debt at negative yield | Telegraph

Warren Buffett last week said that US stocks “might be a little on the high side now, but they’ve not gone into bubble territory.” But the Oracle of Omaha added the standard caveat that “it’s always easier to identify [bubbles] in retrospect.” Does that mean we should refrain from trying to estimate bubble risk in real time? Perhaps, although the devil’s in the details. How you define and look for bubbles are critical factors. Assuming that we”re willing and able to read the data in a comparatively objective manner, searching for bubbles can be productive. But in order to pass the smell test this process should be part of a healthy and diversified risk-management regimen that unfolds in the context of a relatively objective framework. That’s a fairly high bar, but let’s give it a try, if only as an academic exercise.
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● US job openings rise to 14-year high | CNBC
● US Consumer Credit Climbs More Than Expected In Feb | RTT
● PMI: Global economic growth accelerates to 6-month high | Markit
● Eurozone retail PMI climbs to 4-month high | Markit
● Eurozone Feb retail sales up as expected from year earlier | Reuters
● PMI: Emerging market growth remains muted | Markit
● German Factory Orders Drop for Second Month | Bloomberg

The US labor market suffered a sharp deceleration in growth in March, but yesterday’s economic releases suggest that last month’s stumble may be a temporary setback rather than the start of deeper troubles that linger. Monday’s updates certainly paint a picture of an economy that’s still expanding at a brisk pace in the services sector, including payrolls.
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