Housing starts are expected to increase at an annual pace of 971,000 units (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s update for March, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection represents a substantially higher level of residential construction vs. February’s data.
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Output in the US industrial sector slumped a hefty 0.6% in March, far more more than expected. The decline marks the third monthly slide in the past four months and the biggest decrease since mid-2012, the Federal Reserve reports. More troubling is the ongoing deceleration in the year-over-year growth rate for industrial output.
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Healthcare stocks remain the top performer among the major equity sectors, based on the trailing 252-trading-day (1 year) period through April 14 via a set of ETF proxies. Meanwhile, energy shares have been trending higher in recent weeks. The question is whether it’s different this time for energy’s rally. Previous revivals over the past year have been brief affairs that fizzled out in this battered corner of the equity space.
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● US Retail sales rise for first time in 5 months, but signs of softness linger | WSJ
● US NFIB small business optimism index fell across the board in March | DMN
● China’s G.D.P. Slows to 7 Percent, the Weakest Rate Since 2009 | NY Times
● Germany’s consumer prices increased for 2nd straight month in March | RTT
● France consumer prices fall For third month | RTT
● India’s Wholesale Prices Fall For Fifth Month | RTT

US industrial production is expected to increase by a slim 0.1% in tomorrow’s March report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median prediction matches the previous month’s 0.1% rise. Recent surveys of economists, however, anticipate that output will be considerably weaker: several consensus forecasts predict a moderate decline for March.
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US Retail sales increased 0.9% in March, the first monthly rise since last November, the Census Bureau reports. The gain — the strongest in a year — pulls this key indicator back from the brink of what had been an ominously developing trend—three back-to-back monthly declines through February. But while today’s numbers suggest that consumer spending may be on the upswing again, the latest figures still leave room for doubt until we see more data. Why? The year-over-year comparison, while still positive, continues to slide.
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Is the US economy pulling out of its first-quarter slump? Or does the recent slowdown in growth presage deeper troubles for the macro trend? A clearer view may emerge after this week’s economic reports, starting with today’s update on retail sales for March. Industrial production is on tap for tomorrow, followed by housing starts and jobless claims on Thursday. Meanwhile, Treasury yields remain low by recent standards as the market awaits fresh data to reassess the economic outlook and expectations for the Fed’s first interest rate hike.
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● Eurozone Feb industrial production much stronger than expected | Reuters
● urozone Banks See Lending Lifted by QE, Low Rates | WSJ
● U.K. consumer prices stay flat in March | MarketWatch
● UK House Price Inflation Eases For Fifth Month | RTT
● Greece denies default accusations | BBC
● Oil above $58 on U.S. shale output report, Mideast | Reuters
● ‘India will grow at 8-10% for next 15 yrs’ | Times of India
● Russia’s Gazprom Warns Europe Over Price of Natural | NY Times

US retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in tomorrow’s March report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median prediction reflects a moderate rebound vs. the previous month’s 0.6% decline. By contrast, recent surveys of economists project a sharply stronger revival for retail spending in March.
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Most of the glowing analysis of so-called smart beta ETFs focuses on individual funds and how they offer advantages over their conventionally designed counterparts that weight securities by market capitalization—classic beta, as we’ll call them here. But what happens when we design portfolios with smart beta products? How do they compare with an equivalent classic beta asset allocation? It’s hard to develop solid research here because real-world track records for smart beta (SB) are still relatively short. But one set of equity SB funds has been around for more than five years, offering some perspective on what these supposedly new and improved ETFs bring to portfolio design. As we’ll see, however, the results don’t look materially different from using conventional beta products.
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