The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline to 50.9 in tomorrow’s update (May 1) for April vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is still above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook remains in a state of mild growth for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector.
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Consumer spending perked up last month while disposable personal income (DPI) stagnated in March, according to today’s monthly update from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reports that initial jobless claims fell significantly more than expected last week, touching a 15-year low and thereby providing a bullish signal for next week’s monthly update on payrolls for April. From the vantage of today’s spending and income numbers, however, the first quarter ended with mixed results.
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The US economy slowed to a standstill in the first quarter, raising fresh questions about the macro outlook. But if the 0.2% gain in GDP in the first three months of this year is a reason to worry, the Federal Reserve prefers to emphasize the positive. The central bank labels the soft Q1 data as a victim of “transitory factors”. In yesterday’s FOMC statement the Fed advised that “although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace.”
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● Analysts Cut Q2 US GDP Forecasts After Weak Q1 Report | Bloomberg
● Fed Sees US Economy Accelerating After Slump in Q1 | Bloomberg
● US Pending Home Sales Climb To Nearly Two-Year High In March | RTT
● US oil hits 5-month high as dollar weakens | Reuters
● Euro zone ends deflation as price change rises to zero | Reuters
● Euro zone lending grows after three years in the red | Reuters
● German unemployment hits 24 year low in April | RTE
● German retail sales in March post biggest drop since Dec 2013 | Reuters
● Japan’s March industrial output falls, but still tops expectations | CNBC