The outlook for first-quarter US growth has been cut to the bone, according to the current estimate of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow data. But if the “wisdom” of the crowd is accurate this time, it’s only a temporary stumble. Most economists continue to expect a robust Q2 snapback. The Wall Street Journal’s survey data sees second-quarter GDP rising at a brisk 3.1% pace after a sharp deceleration in growth for Q1. The early clues on Q2 via April releases, however, offer a mixed batch of numbers. There’s a long way to go for digesting this month’s economic reports, but at the moment the data doesn’t look especially compelling for anticipating a strong kickoff to Q2. That could change, of course, but for the moment we’re off to a mixed start in the messy business of revising expectations for the current quarter.
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● PMI: US manufacturing output growth slows in April | Markit
● New-home sales in US tumble from 7-year high | MarketWatch
● US consumer confidence fell for 2nd week after close to 8-year high | Bloomberg
● Battle Between Strong Dollar and Cheap Gas: Strong Dollar Is Winning | NY Times
● German Ifo Confidence at 10-Month High as Stimulus Kicks | Bloomberg
● Nasdaq hits a new all-time high | San Jose Mercury News