Economic activity in March slumped to the softest pace in 31 months, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The three-month moving average of this business cycle benchmark (CFNAI-MA3) decreased to -0.27 last month from February’s -0.12 reading. Last month’s estimate is the lowest since Aug. 2012 for the CFNAI-MA3 data and another sign that the macro trend for the US has suffered in this year’s first quarter. Using this index as a guide, economic activity is well below the historical trend (i.e., below zero).
Continue reading →

The unusually wide spread at the outer edges for the trailing performances of the major asset classes via our standard set of ETF proxies has been squeezed a bit. The compression is due mostly to recent weakness in US real estate investment trusts (REITs). Securitized real estate is still in the lead for the trailing one-year period (250 trading days) through Friday (Apr. 17), but the performance advantage has been pared in recent weeks. The Vanguard REIT (VNQ) is ahead by nearly 18% for the past year, but that’s well down from the nearly 30% surge for that trailing period in last month’s update.
Continue reading →

● US leading indicator points to slower growth | Reuters
● US consumer sentiment rises in April | Reuters
● US Consumer Prices Tick Up, in Latest Sign of Emerging Inflation | WSJ
● China’s central bank enters stimulus mode | CNN
● China bank move stokes global worry | Sydney Morning Herald
● Eurozone upturn likely to boost UK economic growth, says new report | Guardian