The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to increase slightly to -0.07 in the March update that’s scheduled for Monday (Apr. 20), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is incrementally above the -0.08 reading for February, which reflected a a mildly below-average pace of economic growth for the US relative to the historical trend. Only negative values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Using today’s estimate for March as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a rate of growth that’s slightly below the historical trend.
Continue reading →

US economic growth slowed in this year’s first quarter, perhaps to the point that the quarterly change for Q1 GDP will be flat in the Commerce Department’s “advance” estimate that’s scheduled for release on Apr. 29. From a business cycle perspective, however, the recent deceleration is modest so far. Indeed, there’s still a high degree of forward momentum in the macro trend based on the numbers in hand. Yes, the tide has turned, but moderately so and after a period of relatively strong growth.
Continue reading →

● March housing starts in US rise but miss estimates | USA Today
● US jobless claims hit highest level in six weeks | MarketWatch
● Consumer Comfort in US Cools From Highest Level Since 2007 | Bloomberg
● Philly Fed Index Rises More Than Expected In April | RTT
● UK employment jumps, jobless rate lowest since July 2008 | Reuters
● Prices start to rise in euro zone, easing deflation fears | Reuters