US industrial production is expected to increase by a slim 0.1% in tomorrow’s March report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median prediction matches the previous month’s 0.1% rise. Recent surveys of economists, however, anticipate that output will be considerably weaker: several consensus forecasts predict a moderate decline for March.
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US Retail sales increased 0.9% in March, the first monthly rise since last November, the Census Bureau reports. The gain — the strongest in a year — pulls this key indicator back from the brink of what had been an ominously developing trend—three back-to-back monthly declines through February. But while today’s numbers suggest that consumer spending may be on the upswing again, the latest figures still leave room for doubt until we see more data. Why? The year-over-year comparison, while still positive, continues to slide.
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Is the US economy pulling out of its first-quarter slump? Or does the recent slowdown in growth presage deeper troubles for the macro trend? A clearer view may emerge after this week’s economic reports, starting with today’s update on retail sales for March. Industrial production is on tap for tomorrow, followed by housing starts and jobless claims on Thursday. Meanwhile, Treasury yields remain low by recent standards as the market awaits fresh data to reassess the economic outlook and expectations for the Fed’s first interest rate hike.
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● Eurozone Feb industrial production much stronger than expected | Reuters
● urozone Banks See Lending Lifted by QE, Low Rates | WSJ
● U.K. consumer prices stay flat in March | MarketWatch
● UK House Price Inflation Eases For Fifth Month | RTT
● Greece denies default accusations | BBC
● Oil above $58 on U.S. shale output report, Mideast | Reuters
● ‘India will grow at 8-10% for next 15 yrs’ | Times of India
● Russia’s Gazprom Warns Europe Over Price of Natural | NY Times