US retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in tomorrow’s March report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median prediction reflects a moderate rebound vs. the previous month’s 0.6% decline. By contrast, recent surveys of economists project a sharply stronger revival for retail spending in March.
Continue reading →

Most of the glowing analysis of so-called smart beta ETFs focuses on individual funds and how they offer advantages over their conventionally designed counterparts that weight securities by market capitalization—classic beta, as we’ll call them here. But what happens when we design portfolios with smart beta products? How do they compare with an equivalent classic beta asset allocation? It’s hard to develop solid research here because real-world track records for smart beta (SB) are still relatively short. But one set of equity SB funds has been around for more than five years, offering some perspective on what these supposedly new and improved ETFs bring to portfolio design. As we’ll see, however, the results don’t look materially different from using conventional beta products.
Continue reading →

● The Fed Can Be Patient About Raising Interest Rates | Alan Blinder (WSJ)
● The $9 Trillion Short That’s Seen Sending the Dollar Even Higher | Bloomberg
● China growth seen slowing to 6.9% in Q1: AFP survey | CNA
● World Bank Sees Slower Growth For Developing East Asia | RTT
● China’s March exports shrink 15% y/y in shock fall | Reuters
● BOJ Kuroda: Japan Economy to Continue Moderate Recovery | MNI
● Oil surges above $59 as traders cover short positions | Reuters
● Italy’s Feb Industrial Output Increased 0.6% in February | Istat