A week has passed since we learned that the growth rate for US payrolls in March suffered a dramatic slowdown for the monthly comparison. The annual pace is still robust, but that didn’t stop some pundits from announcing that the macro apocalypse has arrived. But the incoming numbers for this week beg to differ. Reading all the key reports since Monday implies that the weak March profile for the labor market represents a temporary stumble rather than an early warning of deeper trouble ahead. In short, the outlook for moderate economic growth remains a compelling forecast until the data says otherwise.
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The outlook for the US economy improved a bit in early April, signaling continued growth for the near term, according to a markets-based estimate of the macro trend. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at just over +8.0% yesterday (Apr. 9), the highest since late-Feb. The benchmark’s moderately positive readings suggest that  business cycle risk remains low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated; readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future.
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● US jobless claims data point to strengthening labor market | Reuters
● US Consumer Comfort Index Climbs to Highest Level Since 2007 | Bloomberg
● French industrial production flat, but beats views | MarketWatch
● UK Industrial Output Rises For First Time In 3 Months | RTT
● Spain’s Industrial Output Growth Accelerates | RTT
● Emerging market stocks look more resilient to a Fed rate hike | Reuters