Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 256,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s March update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The monthly prediction reflects a substantial deceleration in growth vs. the 288,000 gain in February.
Continue reading →

Today’s update on new filings for unemployment benefits in the US provides upbeat news in the wake of yesterday’s disappointing release on private payrolls for March via the ADP Employment Report. Whereas the ADP data point to a slowdown in the labor market’s growth rate, today’s initial jobless claims figures suggest the opposite. Indeed, claims unexpectedly fell a hefty 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week through Mar. 28 — close to a post-recession low. If there’s trouble brewing in the labor market, there’s no sign of it in today’s claims data.
Continue reading →

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) slipped in the March estimate. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.8% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, dipped 20 basis points from the previous month’s 4.0% projection.
Continue reading →

● ADP: US job growth in private sector slows sharply in March | LA Times
● US construction spending slips for 2nd month in Feb | Housingwire
● Doubts over US growth cool dollar rally | Reuters
● ISM: US Mfg Growth in March at Slowest Rate in Nearly 2 Years | IW
● PMI: Sharpest improvement in US mfg conditions in March for 5 months | Markit
● US Auto Sales Slow After Months of Healthy Growth | NY Times
● US mortgage applications surge on spring demand in late-March | CNBC
● PMI: Global manufacturing expands at modest pace in March | Markit