The US economy expanded at the slowest rate in a year in February, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The three-month moving average of this business cycle benchmark (CFNAI-MA3) decelerated to -0.08 last month vs. +0.26 in January. Last month’s pace is the slowest reading since Feb. 2014 for the CFNAI-MA3 data. As a result, the US economic trend slipped to a slightly below-trend pace for the first time in 12 months.
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The US economy is on track to expand by 2.1% in this year’s first quarter, based on The Capital Spectator’s new median point forecast for several econometric estimates (real seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection is incrementally below GDP’s 2.2% rise during 2014’s fourth-quarter.
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