The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decelerate to a +0.05 reading in the February update that’s scheduled for Monday (Mar. 23), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is moderately below the +0.33 reading for January, which reflected a strong above-average pace of economic growth for the US relative to the historical trend. Only negative values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Using today’s estimate for February as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a rate of growth that’s slightly above the historical trend.
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How Often Should You Take Tactical Asset Allocation Decisions?
Byeong-Je An, et al.
March 5, 2015
About once a quarter. We compute optimal tactical asset allocation (TAA) policies over equities and bonds when both asset returns are predictable. By varying how often the weights are reset, we estimate the benefits and costs of different frequencies of TAA decisions. Tactical tilts taking advantage of predictable stock returns generate approximately twice as much value as those market-timing bond returns.
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● Jobless claims up slightly last week | USA Today
● Continuing Jobless Claims Near a Low, and That May Not Be Good | WSJ
● U.S. Leading Economic Index Rises 0.2% In February, In Line With Estimates | RTT
● Consumer Comfort Little Changed as U.S. Buying Climate Weakens | Bloomberg
● Philly Fed manufacturing index falls to 13-month low in March | Investing.com
● US Q4 current account deficit largest since 2012 | Reuters