February was a rough month in several corners of the US economy, but business cycle risk remains low overall when measured across a broad set of indicators on a trend basis. Yet a weak housing market and softer numbers for the manufacturing sector have raised worries that economic growth isn’t as strong as it appeared to be in previous months. Optimists argue that the recent slowdown is a temporary soft patch due to a harsh winter. That’s a plausible forecast, in part because the all-important labor market continued to post strong growth through February. As for the big picture, the overall macro trend still has a high degree of positive momentum, based on the current numbers.
Continue reading →

● Is Janet Yellen committed to a summer interest rate hike? | Fortune
● US housing starts see biggest collapse since January 2007 | HousingWire
● Redbook: US retail sales rise in first half of March | MNI
● ZEW: German investor morale at brightest in just over a year | Reuters
● Japan’s Central Bank Warns of Temporary Return to Deflation | NY Times