US economic data has been a bit wobbly lately—the unexpected slide in February retail sales, which marks the third straight month of red ink, for instance. The optimists say this is just a soft patch for spending, weighed down by a harsh winter. The encouraging figures in other key indicators imply as much, including the upbeat numbers for payrolls. Perhaps, then, it’s no surprise to find that the real monetary base for the US continued to decline through February, laying the groundwork for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in nearly a decade. The arrival of policy tightening could come as early as June, according to some forecasters… assuming, of course, that economic growth holds up.
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● US Jobless Claims Fell More Than Forecast Last Week | Bloomberg
● US Import Prices Rise 0.4% Amid Rebound In Fuel Prices | RTT
● Eurozone industrial production in slow recovery | City AM
● US Consumer Comfort Index Little Changed Amid Weaker Buying | Bloomberg
● Bank of England’s Carney Sees Gentle Upward Path For Rates | MNI