The US economy is projected to grow 2.8% in this year’s first quarter, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates (real seasonally adjusted annual rate). That’s marginally above the 2.6% gain for 2014’s fourth quarter.
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● Stocks rise, safe-haven Swiss franc falls on Greek deal | Reuters
● Greece set to stay in euro zone, say finance chiefs | CNBC
● German Ifo Business Confidence Rises Less Than Expected | RTT
● Fed rate rise timing back in the spotlight | Reuters
● Ports Increasingly Bustling Again After Tentative Labor Deal | AP

● Buy, Hold, and Sell!: The Investment Strategy That Could Save You From the Next Market Crash
By Ken Moraif
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Protect your retirement from the next big crash with a New Twist on the Old Investment Strategy. For years, advisors have recommended that investors take a “buy and hold” approach to the market, but people over fifty can’t afford to rely on this strategy. Buy, Hold, & SELL! uncovers the myth of the “buy and hold” investment philosophy, and explains why it’s dangerously incomplete. Written by Ken Moraif, one of Barron’s top 100 Financial Advisors in the United States three years a row and who called the 2008 market crash in November of 2007, this book outlines an alternative strategy that better serves investors who are at retirement age. Written in easy-to-understand language and buoyed by Ken’s trademark humor, this guide shoots down the myths that keep investors in risky markets, and arms readers with the knowledge, motivation, and strategies that may help them survive-and even thrive-during the inevitable next bear market.
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The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decelerate to a +0.31 reading in the January update that’s scheduled for release on Monday (Feb. 23), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is modestly below the +0.39 reading for December, which reflected a strong above-average pace of economic growth for the US relative to the historical trend. Only negative values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Using today’s estimate for January as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth at an above-trend pace.
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US Treasury yields are trending higher again, buoyed by upbeat economic news in recent days — on both sides of the Atlantic. Low inflation may persuade the Federal Reserve to delay its first round of rate hikes, but a generally positive run of macro data in recent days has refocused the bond market’s attention on the potential for tighter monetary policy later this year.
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● US Jobless Claims Fall to 283,000 in Latest Week | WSJ
● U.S. leading indicator points to moderate growth | Reuters
● Eurozone PMI: Private Sector Growth Hits 7-Month High In Feb | Markit
● Germany PMI: Private-sector growth accelerates to 7-month high | Markit
● Japan PMI: Solid production growth sustained at manufacturers | Markit

The broad trend for the US economy continued to show resilience in the first month of 2015. Despite the upbeat news, the outlook is one of cautious optimism. Any number of potential hazards simmering in the global economy may bring headwinds down the road. Meantime, there are risks lurking within the US, including a wobbly real estate market and the ongoing labor dispute at West Coast ports that’s starting to pinch the nation’s maritime economic activity. Based on the current data set through January, however, positive macro momentum for the US was intact .
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● Greece Loan Extension Revives Wrangling Over Aid Terms | Bloomberg
● Russia’s Putin ‘real and present danger’ to Baltics – British minister | Reuters
● US producer prices plunged in Jan because of cheaper gas and oil | LA Times
● US port dispute is felt all along West Coast | LA Times
● Fed Minutes Show Reluctance To Raise Interest Rates Just Yet | RTT

Today’s US updates for residential housing construction and industrial production fell short of expectations for the monthly comparisons, but the year-over-year trends are looking brighter. The January release on industrial activity is especially encouraging. It all adds up to a change for the better for anticipating that business cycle risk in the US will remain low for the foreseeable future.
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Real estate investment trusts (REITs) continue to hold the pole position among the major asset classes for the trailing one-year period, although the sizzling returns of late have cooled a bit in recent weeks. Vanguard REIT (VNQ) is higher by a strong 26.5% on a total return basis through yesterday (Feb. 17), based on the trailing one-year period (defined here as the past 250 trading days). That’s an impressive gain, but it’s moderately softer than the advances we’ve seen earlier this year.
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