Daily Archives: February 25, 2015

The Popular (But Risky) Habit Of Cherry-Picking Economic Data For Business-Cycle Analysis

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s Senate testimony yesterday suggested that the central bank is still on track to hike rates later this year, courtesy of the stronger economic trend. But the big day may arrive later than previously assumed. It’s all about the data. “Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve,” the Fed will raise rates when it’s “reasonably confident that inflation will move back over the medium term toward our 2% objective,” she advised. But while the official line tells us to prepare for policy tightening at some point, there’s more talk in some corners that the business cycle is looking shaky again. Huh?
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