The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decelerate to a +0.31 reading in the January update that’s scheduled for release on Monday (Feb. 23), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is modestly below the +0.39 reading for December, which reflected a strong above-average pace of economic growth for the US relative to the historical trend. Only negative values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Using today’s estimate for January as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth at an above-trend pace.
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US Treasury yields are trending higher again, buoyed by upbeat economic news in recent days — on both sides of the Atlantic. Low inflation may persuade the Federal Reserve to delay its first round of rate hikes, but a generally positive run of macro data in recent days has refocused the bond market’s attention on the potential for tighter monetary policy later this year.
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● US Jobless Claims Fall to 283,000 in Latest Week | WSJ
● U.S. leading indicator points to moderate growth | Reuters
● Eurozone PMI: Private Sector Growth Hits 7-Month High In Feb | Markit
● Germany PMI: Private-sector growth accelerates to 7-month high | Markit
● Japan PMI: Solid production growth sustained at manufacturers | Markit