Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 231,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s January update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The monthly prediction reflects a moderate deceleration in growth vs. December’s 240,000 gain.
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Daily Archives: February 5, 2015
Last Week’s Rise In Jobless Claims Is Good News… Really
US jobless claims climbed 11,000 last week, which is no trivial amount. But this is bullish news. Why? Because the previous week’s extraordinary decline—down 42,000 for the week through Jan. 24 in today’s revision—was only moderately pared back. The thinking last week was that the shortened Martin Luther King holiday skewed the data, which inspired forecasts that today’s number would pop sharply higher in a bout of payback. The consensus forecast called a hefty gain today, with claims projected to rise to 290,000. But as today’s release shows, quite a lot of the recent slide remains intact in today’s report. The news translates to a bullish update for anticipating the near-term outlook for the labor market, starting with tomorrow’s official payrolls report from Washington.
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Global Economy Expands At a Modestly Faster Pace In January
Growth picked up a bit at the start of the new year for the global economy, according to business survey data for January. The JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index ticked higher last month, rising to 52.8 from December’s 14-month low of 52.4. (A reading above the neutral 50.0 mark indicates expanding economic activity.) Yes, it’s a mild advance and it hardly marks a sharp reversal from the slowdown that’s been unfolding lately. But the worst fears from some corners of the economic forecasting realm look prematurely dark at the moment.
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Initial Guidance | 5 February 2015
● US Private-sector job growth cooled to 213,000 in January, ADP says | LA Times
● PMI: Stronger US services sector growth in January | Markit
● ECB cancels soft treatment of Greek debt in warning to Athens | Reuters
● Germany Factory Orders Rise Sharply In December, Tops Forecast | RTT
● China cuts bank reserve requirement to spur growth | Reuters
● Buffett: Fed rate hike not feasible | CNBC