It’s been a rough week for US economic data. With the exception of auto sales, which surged 13% in January, the numbers so far this week have been disappointing. This morning’s January release of the ADP Employment Report is hardly a washout, although it fell short of expectations. Nonetheless, private payrolls continued to expand above the 200,000-per-month mark in January. True, last month’s 213,000 gain is the lowest since last September. What’s more, today’s news follows updates in recent days of a hefty decline in consumer spending in December; a sharp slide in factory orders at 2014’s close; and a slower rate of growth in manufacturing via the ISM Index. It all looks rather worrisome, but it’s too soon to assume the worst.
Continue reading
Daily Archives: February 4, 2015
Portfolio Analysis in R: Part II | Analyzing A 60/40 Strategy
In a previous post I reviewed the basics of using the PerformanceAnalytics package in R for evaluating a simple 60/40 US stock/bond portfolio based on a pair of ETFs. Let’s round out that preliminary review by exploring a few additional applications before moving on to a deeper level of analysis in a future article, when we’ll consider the possibilities for enhancing a 60/40 mix.
Continue reading
Initial Guidance | 4 February 2015
● US factory orders fall sharply, order books shrinking | Reuters
● US auto sales surge 13% in January | LA Times
● Eurozone retail sales rise for 3rd straight month in Dec | Eurostat
● PMI: Growth of Chinese business activity eases to 8-month low | Markit
● PMI: Eurozone economic growth improves | Markit
● PMI: Germany services growth improves at 2015’s start | Markit
● PMI: Sharp UK services growth sustained at start of 2015 | Markit