Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 241,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s January update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median projection matches November’s increase.
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Yesterday’s update on consumer spending for December looks pretty ugly. Consumption slid 0.3% on a monthly basis in 2014’s final month—the first monthly bout of red ink since the previous January and the deepest retreat in five years. The news prompted some pundits to declare that the sky was falling. But the headline number isn’t as bad as it looks. Why? Because private-sector wages are still rising at a healthy (and slightly faster) pace.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to tick lower in January. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.5% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, fell 10 basis points from the previous 3.6% projection.
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● Obama Urged by Former U.S. Officials to Arm Ukrainian Forces | Bloomberg
● U.S. consumer spending in December weakest since 2009 | Reuters
● US ISM Mfg Index: Slower Than Expected Growth In January | RTT
● US Factories Brace for Oil Shock as Growth Cools | Bloomberg
● US Construction Spending Rose 0.4 Percent in December | AP/ABC
● PMI: UK construction growth unexpectedly rebounds in January | Reuters