The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline slightly to 55.0 in tomorrow’s update (Feb. 2) for January vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is still well above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook remains firmly in growth territory for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector.
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US personal consumption spending for December is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s update (Feb. 2), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a substantial slowdown in growth relative to November’s 0.6% advance. Note, however, that the previously released data on retail sales reflects a decline for December—a decline that implies that a downside surprise is higher than usual in tomorrow’s report. Not surprisingly, using a model based on retail sales alone anticipates that personal consumption spending will slide in December (see table below).
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