Retail consumption fell sharply in December, far more than expected, the US Census Bureau reports. Sales slumped 0.9% last month vs. November, well below the consensus view that predicted a relatively mild 0.1% fall (or the modest 0.2% gain anticipated by The Capital Spectator’s median forecast). Today’s surprisingly weak report translates to a 3.2% annual increase, the slowest year-over-year gain in 10 months. In short, today’s numbers for retail spending at last year’s close look discouraging. It may be a warning sign for the US economy, but a closer review of the data suggests that last month’s skid may be noise.
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Securitized real estate is crushing the competition. The global markets have turned wobbly lately, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the recent performance for real estate investment trusts. US REITs are far and away the best performer among the major asset classes via our standard list of ETF proxies over the past 12 months. Vanguard REIT (VNQ) has climbed an impressive 33.5% on a total return basis through yesterday (Jan. 13), based on the trailing one-year period (defined here as the past 250 trading days). The number-two performer—US stocks, broadly defined via Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI)—is far off in the rear-view mirror with a 10.5% advance.
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● Job openings jump to a 14-year high | AP/USA Today
● Small Business Most Optimistic In US Since 2006 | Industry Week
● World Bank Downgrades Global Growth Forecast | RTT
● Eurozone industrial production beats forecasts: +0.2% in November | FT
● Europe court backs ECB bond-buying program | CNBC
● ECB’s Draghi says risk of deflation higher than a year ago | Reuters
● Oil extends losses as World Bank cuts growth forecast | Reuters