The US labor market posted another healthy increase last month, the government reports. Private-sector payrolls increased 240,000, a bit more than economists were forecasting (but slightly below The Capital Spectator’s median prediction). Although December’s advance was well below November’s increase (+345,000 for the private sector), today’s release still looks encouraging. Indeed, when you strip out the monthly noise and focus on the year-over-year change for private payrolls, the numbers look quite cheery. Indeed, the labor market last month grew at the fastest pace (+2.48%) in nearly two years, based on annual growth in workers at US companies.
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It may be a trap, but the recent slide in US Treasury yields and the market’s implied inflation forecast could be a blessing that helps unleash a stronger cycle of growth. The critical factor, of course, is the strength of the US economy. So far, so good. The macro trend for the US has improved lately, and there are few signals that suggest that the positive bias is about to deteriorate. The Labor Department’s employment report that’s due out later this morning is widely expected to provide a new round of data that supports the case for optimism. If so, the US economy appears to be headed for a sweet spot: stronger growth and low/falling interest rates and inflation.
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● US jobless claims dip; 2014 layoffs lowest in 17 years | Reuters
● US Consumer Confidence Rising as Job Market Strengthens | Bloomberg
● Germany Industrial Production Drops Unexpectedly In November | MNI
● UK Industrial Output Falls Marginally In November | RTT
● China’s December inflation rate rises to 1.5%, near 5-year low | BBC
● Japan Survey: Nov Machine Orders +4.6%, 1st Rise in 2 Months | MNI
● Bank of England keeps rates at 0.5%; ECB eyed | CNBC