Private payrolls in the US increased by 241,000 in December, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report. The gain, which beat expectations by a sizable margin, marks a moderate improvement over November’s revised 227,000 advance. More importantly, the year-over-year pace of growth accelerated to roughly 2.2% through last month—the fastest annual growth rate since August 2012. Today’s data comes at a critical time, when concerns that Europe’s economic trend is stagnating or worse. Granted, the offshore risks for the US remain substantial, but ADP’s latest release suggests that the recent improvement in job growth was intact at last year’s close.
Continue reading →

US economic data has been improving lately, but Mr. Market’s no longer in a mood for celebrating. The US equity market has tumbled sharply in recent days. Meanwhile, the appetite has surged again for the safe haven of US Treasuries. Is all this just noise, or a warning signal that the recent acceleration in the US macro trend has already run its course? No one really knows the answer at this point, in part because you can still make a compelling case for both narratives. Clarity is coming, however, and perhaps as early as this week, once we see updated numbers on US payrolls for December.
Continue reading →

● Eurozone consumer inflation rate turns negative in Dec | Bloomberg
● Brent oil slips below $50 on mounting glut, slack demand | Reuters
● Soaring Bond Prices May Sound an Economic Warning | NY Times
● US services firms expand at steady but slower pace in December | AP/WaPo
● German Unemployment Rate At Record Low in December| RTT
● Italy Jobless Rate At A Record High In November | RTT