Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 213,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s December update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median projection is marginally above November’s increase.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to trend lower through December. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is now projected to earn an annualized 3.6% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, fell 30 basis points from November’s 3.9% projection. But if yesterday’s sharp drop in financial and commodity markets persists in the days ahead, GMI’s expected risk premium will probably rebound in the near-term future. Meanwhile, using data through the end of 2014 suggests that GMI’s anticipated return over the risk-free rate suffered another decline last month.
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● Dow plummets 331 as oil drops below $50 | USA Today
● Eurozone PMI: slowest growth in over a year in Q4 | Markit
● Greece vs Europe: who will blink first? | Telegraph
● 2014 car sales best in U.S. since ’06 | Detroit News
● German inflation falls to five-year low | BBC
● Gold Surges as Flight to Safety Spurs Longest Run Since October | Bloomberg