● Basic Economics (5th ed.)
By Thomas Sowell
Summary via publisher (Basic Books)
In this fifth edition of Basic Economics, Thomas Sowell revises and updates his popular book on common sense economics, bringing the world into clearer focus through a basic understanding of the fundamental economic principles and how they explain our lives. Drawing on lively examples from around the world and from centuries of history, Sowell explains basic economic principles for the general public in plain English. Basic Economics, which has now been translated into six languages and has additional material online, remains true to its core principle: that the fundamental facts and principles of economics do not require jargon, graphs, or equations, and can be learned in a relaxed and even enjoyable way.
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As good news for the labor market goes these days, today’s numbers from Washington for November payrolls rank as one of the better reports in recent memory. Private-sector employment increased by a strong 314,000 last month, way above the +225,000 consensus forecast. “Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing,” the Labor Department said in today’s release.
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The growth in US retail spending has eased lately, with the year-over-year pace dipping to 4.1% through October — the slowest rise since July. Is that a sign that consumption on Main Street will end the year on a disappointing note? Not necessarily, according to the latest run of reports from the front lines of the retail sector. The government’s November national profile of retail sales doesn’t arrive until Dec. 11, but the preliminary outlook looks mildly encouraging, based on recent figures from private sources. Here’s a summary of what the numbers are telling us at the moment for anticipating next week’s November update on retail sales from the US Census Bureau:
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● German industry orders surge by 2.5 pct in Oct | Reuters
● Bundesbank Cuts Outlook Even as Factory Orders Jump | Bloomberg
● US jobless claims fall back below 300,000 | MarketWatch
● ECB’s Draghi Opens Door to New Stimulus, But Not Yet | WSJ
● Spain’s Industrial Output Growth Rises In October | RTT
● Japan Leading Index Falls To 22-Month Low | RTT
● China Nov data to show economy still cooling | Reuters

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 206,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s November update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The monthly prediction reflects a slight deceleration in growth vs. October’s 209,000 gain.
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The decline in oil prices—the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate as of Dec. 1 is down roughly 35% since the recent peak in June 2014 —has inspired bullish expectations for consumer spending and related investments. As the Washington Post noted earlier this week: “Tumbling oil prices are draining hundreds of billions of dollars from the coffers of oil-rich exporters and oil companies and injecting a much-needed boost for ailing economies in Europe and Japan — and for American consumers at the start of the peak shopping season.” The slide in energy prices is also “spurring U.S. mutual fund managers to pick up shares of restaurants, airlines, and retailers, all consumer stocks that have been among the worst performers in the stock market this year,” Reuters reported yesterday.
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● US service sector growth at three-month high: ISM | Reuters
● US Services PMI Tumbles For 5th Month As “Demand Weakens” | Zero Hedge
● Eurozone Retail PMI: Sales slide eases as Germany sees solid growth | Markit
● Germany Retail PMI rises to 5-mo high, but employment growth slows | Markit
● Fed Beige Book Shows ‘Widespread’ Job Gains Across U.S | Bloomberg
● Draghi & Co. face historic QE decision at Thursday’s ECB meeting | MarketWatch

US companies added 208,000 workers in November, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report. The gain was a bit softer than the consensus forecast, but overall the labor market continues to show a solid rate of growth. “At this pace the unemployment rate will drop by half a percentage point per annum,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said in the accompanying press release. “The tightening in the job market will soon prompt acceleration in wage growth.”
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● Solid construction, auto sales data boost U.S. growth picture | Reuters
● PMI: Eurozone economic growth at 16-month low in Nov | Markit
● PMI: UK service sector growth strengthens in Nov | Markit
● Uncertainty in Washington Poses Long List of Economic Perils | NY Times
● Top CEOs less optimistic about US economy but plan more hiring | LA Times
● Fed’s Dudley says oil price drop a net benefit for US | Reuters
● Russia warns of recession in 2015 | BBC

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 227,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s November update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median projection is marginally below October’s increase.
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