The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rebound to a +0.12 reading in the November update that’s scheduled for Monday (Dec. 22), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is moderately above the -0.01 reading for October, which reflected a fractionally below-average pace of economic growth for the US relative to the historical trend. Only values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Using today’s estimate for November as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth at an above-trend pace.
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It’s all about real estate investment trusts (REITs) these days when it comes to bullish performance among the major asset classes via our standard list of ETF proxies for the key slices of global markets. US REITs, to be precise, are enjoying a melt-up moment. But don’t confuse the stellar results with foreign REITs, which are posting only modest gains. US shares of securitized real estate, by contrast, have roared higher over the trailing one-year period (defined here as the past 250 trading days). Although prices have eased in recent days, Vanguard REIT (VNQ) is ahead by a hefty 30.4% through yesterday (Dec. 18). That’s twice the rise for the second-best performer, US equities, based on the Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI).
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● Jobless claims still signal strong U.S. hiring | MarketWatch
● US service sector output growth hits 10-month low in Dec | Markit
● U.S. Leading Economic Index Rises 0.6% In November | RTT
● Philly Fed survey shows factory activity slowed in December | Reuters
● German consumer morale highest in 8 years heading into Jan | Reuters
● Dollar index near 5-year highs amid U.S. optimism | Investing.com
● Japan govt says economy in “moderate recovery” trend | MNI