The global economy is under pressure these days, suffering from a troubling mix of heightened geopolitical risk and wobbly macro reports. Despite the challenging environment, the US economy still looks resilient, based on the current numbers through November. Tracking a diversified set of indicators shows that macro momentum was solidly positive through last month. But at a time when the economic trend for the US appears to be strengthening, new threats are on the horizon. In addition to the familiar and long-simmering challenges facing Europe and Japan, a crisis may be brewing in emerging markets in the wake of sharply lower oil prices. As a result, blowback risk is rising for the developed world. The US isn’t immune to the turbulence, but the downside risks for the near term are limited due to the country’s positive macro momentum of late.
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