US retail spending jumped substantially more than expected last month, the Census Bureau reports: up 0.7% in November vs. the previous month. That’s well above the 0.4% consensus forecast. The profile for consumption looks even stronger on a year-over-year basis. It all adds up to a strong signal for the holiday shopping season, and one that resonates in the wake of last week’s surprisingly potent November advance in nonfarm payrolls.
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The small-cap premium is one of the oldest return anomalies (or risk factors, if you’re so inclined) identified in the research literature. But after decades of analysis and mixed results, the idea that small company shares will outperform large caps also draws plenty of skepticism.
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● Spending Bill Hits Snags, but Congress Thinks It Can Avoid Shutdown | NY Times
● U.S. budget deficit shrinks in November | MarketWatch
● U.S. mortgage applications rise in latest week: MBA | Reuters
● German inflation rate confirmed at 4 1/2-year low in Nov | FT
● Italy Oct industry output falls, disappointing recovery hopes | Reuters
● Investors Sell Stocks as Oil Prices Keep Falling | WSJ
● France Nov Inflation Falls Back To Lowest Level Since 2009 | MNI