If there’s any illness for which people offer many remedies, you may be sure that particular illness is incurable…
— Anton Checkov, The Cherry Orchard

New products aren’t typically about the business of investing. They are about getting people to buy and sell things. There are very few companies that focus on the long-term business of investing… The best thing you can do for yourself is to make your choice [of a long-term strategy], keep it simple and stick with it. When presented with all these new products, it’s caveat emptor.
— Jack Bogle, Q&A with Bloomberg

Last week’s surprisingly strong gain in November payrolls may be a sign that the US economy is improving, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the Treasury market. Or would you? Actually, much depends on which portion of the yield curve you’re gazing at. The 2-year yield has popped higher since Friday’s bullish payrolls data, which is what you’d expect for this maturity — typically the most sensitive slice of the curve when it comes to rate expectations. But the analysis is complicated by tumbling inflation expectations.
Continue reading →

● Congress races to reach spending deal before shutdown deadline | MSNBC
● UK industrial production unexpectedly slips in October | MarketWatch
● German Exports Drop Modestly; Imports Fall Most Since 2012 | RTT
● Brent crude oil hits five-year low below $66 on oversupply | Reuters
● Cheap Oil Also Means Cheaper Commodities Amid Surpluses | Bloomberg
● China’s stock mania decouples from economic reality | Telegraph