The Federal Reserve is reportedly on track to start raising interest rates next year, but the tightening is already underway if only in relative terms. Indeed, there’s a conspicuous directional change in the year-over-year comparison in the real (inflation-adjusted) monetary base. The substantial deceleration of the growth rate that’s been unfolding this year isn’t surprising at this point, but it serves as a reminder that the central bank’s plan to normalize policy is a process rather than a single date in the future when the Fed funds rate increases.
Continue reading →

US equities (Russell 3000) took the lead with performance among the major asset classes in November, posting a solid 2.4% total return. US real estate investment trusts (REITs) were in close pursuit with a 2.0% advance, which builds on October’s spectacular 10.0% surge, based on the MSCI REIT Index. In third place: foreign stock markets in the developed world (MSCI EAFE), which dispensed a respectable 1.4% total return. Whatever macro troubles weigh on Europe and Japan (and there are many), the burden appeared to be in remission in November in terms of equity performance overall.
Continue reading →

● German manufacturing PMI revised down to 49.5 in November | Investing.com
● Eurozone manufacturing hits near-stagnation as Big 3 nations contract | Guardian
● Italy Manufacturing Contracts Again | RTT
● Fed rattled by elusive inflation, but loath to sound alarm yet | Reuters
● Black Friday Spending Drops 11% | Time
● Oil suffers fresh heavy losses, with outlook unclear | Marketwatch