The US economic trend remained positive in early November, rebounding from last month’s decline, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +8.2% yesterday (Nov. 10). The index’s revival comes after briefly dipping in mid-October to the lowest level so far in 2014. But even at last month’s trough, MMRI remained positive. The benchmark’s continued run of readings above zero through yesterday suggests that business cycle risk remains low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future.
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● The Conference Board US Employment Trends Index Increased in October | CB
● NY Fed Says Public’s Inflation Outlook Steady At 3% In October | WSJ
● Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Improves In November | RTT
● Fears of German recession as moment of truth looms | CNBC
● Japan Oct Consumer Confidence Dips 3rd Month on Jobs, Costs | MNI
● Brent oil falls below $82, hitting four-year low | Reuters
● Russia braces for long economic war with the West | Telegraph

James Grant has a new book, The Forgotten Depression, and he wants us all to know that letting the business cycle run its course is in everyone’s best interest. The subtitle says as much… 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself.
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● After Jobs Report, Investing Climate May Be Better Than Investors Think | WSJ
● Revenue Softness Worries Stock Investors | WSJ
● 5 reasons to still love the energy sector | Financial Post
● U.S. Consumer Credit Rises Roughly In Line With Estimates In September | RTT
● Italy industrial output falls more than expected | Marketwatch
● US faces last best chance on Iran nuke deal | AP
● Bank of Russia Cuts 2015 Economic Forecast to Show No Growth | Bloomberg
● China Oct Exports Beat Consensus; Outlook Cautious | MNI

● The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself
By James Grant
Review via The Economist
The economic slump that afflicted America in 1920 and 1921 was a nasty affair. Real output fell by some 9% and unemployment may have soared as high as 19%—the statistics are patchy—making it easily twice as bad as the so-called Great Recession of 2007-09.
Yet the slump is barely remembered, largely because it was eclipsed by the Great Depression a decade later. In his aptly titled book, James Grant, the founder of a well-regarded financial newsletter, has two missions: to bring this fascinating chapter of economic history back to life, and to demonstrate that a laissez-faire approach can cure slumps better than government activism managed in the 1930s—or indeed in 2008. He is more successful in his first aim than the second.
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Private payrolls increased 209,000 in October, according to this morning’s report from the US Labor Department. The gain was moderately below the consensus forecast, although last month’s advance still looks good. Indeed, the private sector added jobs at or above the 200,000 mark for the ninth-straight month — the longest run of consecutive monthly growth at or above 200k in two decades. Nonetheless, today’s release still leaves room for debate about whether the US economy is accelerating. This much, however, is clear: the moderate expansion of late rolls on.
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This week’s encouraging numbers for the US labor market (jobless claims and ADP’s estimate of private-sector jobs) suggest that today’s official report on payrolls from Washington will deliver upbeat macro news as well. But another round of bullish headlines will weigh on bonds, which have already started to sag.
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● Eurozone rescue plan: ECB to deploy €1 trillion stimulus | Telegraph
● German industry output rises 1.4 percent in Sep | Reuters
● UK Industrial Output Rises More Than Forecast on Oil, Cars | Bloomberg
● French industrial production was flat in September | Marketwatch
● Economists Predict Weak Start to China’s Fourth Quarter | ChinaRealTime
● Two Reasons The Fed Will Be Slow To Raise Rates | Ciovacco Capital Mgt

New filings for unemployment benefits delivered another bullish update this morning. Claims fell more than expected, dropping 10,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 278,000 – close to the 14-year low of 266,000 for the week through October 11. This leading indicator has been sliding for much of the year so far and today’s release confirms that the downside momentum is intact. As such, the data du jour strengthens confidence for expecting an encouraging number in tomorrow’s October payrolls report from the Labor Department.
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Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 226,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s October update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The monthly prediction reflects a slight deceleration in growth vs. the 236,000 gain for September.
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