The pace of US growth slowed more than expected in October, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The three-month moving average for this benchmark of 85 indicators slipped to a negative 0.01 reading last month from +0.12 in September. Led by weakness in “production-related indicators,” today’s release “suggests that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend,” according to the press release.
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There’s a pernicious rumor making the rounds that economic and market forecasts are accurate. There’s also a misguided notion embraced in some corners that all predictions are worthless at all times under all conditions. Both of these extreme views are unproductive, bordering on dangerous. Yes, peering into the future is hazardous work and it’s a field that’s burdened with an excess of landmines. But avoiding what can be a nasty business is impossible when it comes to the money game. Thinking clearly about forecasting, as a result, is crucial. Unfortunately, a sober-minded perspective on this hot-button topic seems to be the exception to the rule in a world that’s awash with projections.
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● German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Gains in November | Bloomberg
● Euro near two-year low as investors bet on more ECB easing | Reuters
● All eyes on oil: What will OPEC do this week? | CNNMoney
● China Cuts Interest Rates For First Time Since 2012 | RTT
● US Week Ahead: Q3 GDP, MNI Chicago, Durables, Housing Data | MNI
● Putin stands by hawkish Russian central bank – for now | Reuters