The first hint that the global economy’s recent weakness is creeping into the US arrived in today’s preliminary November update of the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This survey of business conditions in the manufacturing sector reflected slower growth for this month’s flash estimate. Dipping to 54.7, the PMI’s slide — the third monthly decline in a row — shows that manufacturing activity in the US increased this month at the slowest pace since January.
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Daily Archives: November 20, 2014
Jobless Claims Fell Last Week, Underlining Bullish Trend
New filings for unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 291,000 for the week through November 15, the Labor Department reports. It’s a relatively minor change, but today’s update provides more evidence that the broad slide in jobless claims rolls on. The latest reading remains close to the 14-year low of 266,000 for the week through October 11, 2014. Stepping back and looking at the historical record, claims are near the lowest levels recorded over the last 40 years. Suffice to say, this leading indicator for the labor market—and for the economy generally—continues to flash a bullish signal.
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US Economic Profile | 20 November 2014
The outlook for the global economy is suffering these days, but there’s still no clear sign that the deceleration in macro activity has infected the US. Based on the latest numbers for October, the broad trend for the US remains distinctly positive. A diversified mix of economic and financial indicators continues to reflect growth through last month. But there are clouds on the horizon. Stagnation in Europe, recession in Japan, and slowing growth in China collectively pose a threat to America’s positive momentum — a threat that may take a bite out of US activity at some point. But for the moment, the numbers for the US overall reflect a clear bias for expansion.
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Initial Guidance | 20 November 2014
● Flash Germany PMI: growth drops to 16-month low in Nov | Markit
● November flash PMI signals weakest eurozone growth for 16 months | Markit
● Flash China Manufacturing PMI Flat In Nov At 6-month low | Markit
● Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI shows moderate growth in November | Markit
● US Stocks Decline as Fed Minutes Show Concern on Deflation | Bloomberg
● Oil & gold price plunge doesn’t signal global recession, experts say | The Guardian