Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for September is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The prediction reflects a deceleration in growth relative to August’s 0.5% gain.
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The US economy grew faster than expected in this year’s third quarter, according to this morning’s “advance” GDP estimate for the July-through-September period. Economic activity expanded 3.5% in Q3, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports — comfortably above the consensus forecast’s 3.0% estimate, according to Econoday.com’s survey. Meanwhile, today’s weekly update on jobless claims continues to signal ongoing growth for the labor market. The numbers du jour aren’t terribly surprising if you’ve been following the macro updates recently, but the news is no less encouraging for anticipating that moderate growth for the US will persevere for the foreseeable future.
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It’s nearly Halloween, but the frightening rise in US stock market volatility earlier this month is looking less creepy at the moment. In particular, the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 has tumbled substantially over the past week, settling at a level yesterday (Oct. 29) that prevailed before the sharp correction took a hefty bite out of equities in the first half of October. The descent in risk is a bullish sign, but it comes with caveats. Indeed, other measures of market volatility have yet to confirm the VIX’s drop. As a result, it’s premature to say that October’s menacing volatility signal was a false alarm about the potential for an extended run of the market’s horror show .
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● NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe | Wall Street Journal
Russian military aircraft conducted aerial maneuvers around Europe this week on a scale seldom seen since the end of the Cold War, prompting NATO jets to scramble in another sign of how raw East-West relations have grown.
● Fed’s Bond Buying Ends–Rates Could Stay Low for Years | Street.com
Six years after the Federal Reserve rode to the rescue during the financial crisis, the central bank is ending its bond-buying program in October.
● German Unemployment Unexpectedly Falls | Bloomberg
German unemployment unexpectedly declined in October in a sign of companies’ confidence in the underlying strength of Europe’s largest economy.
● Spanish economy grows for 5th quarter in a row | BusinessWeek
Spain’s economy grew by 0.5 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, its fifth consecutive quarterly growth.
● US loan applications to buy homes lowest since Feb | Reuters
U.S. mortgage applications to buy homes fell to their lowest level last week since February as interest rates on 30-year home loans edged up from the previous week’s 16-month trough, an industry group said on Wednesday.