The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decelerate a bit to +0.03 in tomorrow’s update for September, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is marginally below August’s +0.07 reading, which reflected above-average economic growth relative to the historical trend. Only values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate for September, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth at a marginally above-trend pace.
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Welcome to the big snapback… so far. The prices of risky assets have made a huge U-turn in recent days. Battered and bruised has given way to robust and rising. It may turn out to be a fleeting resurgence, but the rebound looks impressive at the moment. US real estate investment trusts (REITs) in particular have delivered a rousing revival. But while most of the global markets have perked up, there’s been a notable exception: commodities, which in broad terms aren’t participating in the party.
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● Existing home sales hit highest level in 2014 | USA Today
Existing home sales last month were the strongest this year, but remained below year-earlier levels for the 11th straight month, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
● US Q3 Real GDP Still Looks Solid | First Trust
After 4.6% growth rate in Q2, we expect real GDP to rise at a 2.9% annual growth rate in Q3.
● US Same-store sales eased 0.3% | IBD
Same-store sales eased 0.3% in the Oct. 18 week, ICSC-Goldman said. It helped nudge the yearly rise down to 2.1% from 3.8% in the prior week.
● China seen staying away from rate cuts | South China Morning Post
China’s central bank is likely to hold its line against an interest rate cut even as growth slows to a quarter-century trough, as the politics of reform influence the conduct of monetary policy, government sources involved in internal policy discussions say.
● Ukraine’s Vote, Russia’s Fate | Project Syndicate
When Ukraine’s voters go to the polls on October 26, not only the fate of their country will be at stake; so will the future of a significant part of Europe.