The sharp losses in the stock market lately suggest that the US economy faces a new round of headwinds. Yet there’s no sign of trouble in today’s updates on jobless claims and industrial production. In fact, the numbers du jour delivered substantially better-than-expected results. Taken at face value, today’s data implies that economic growth is accelerating. That’s probably assuming too much at this point, although it’s safe to say that the macro trend still looks encouraging after reviewing this morning’s releases.
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Housing starts are expected to increase to an annual pace of 999,000 in tomorrow’s update for September, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast for several econometric forecasts. The projection represents a moderately higher number of starts vs. 956,000 for August.
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● Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears | Wall Street Journal
Falling Commodities Prices Pressures Central Banks
● Bond Yields Worldwide Plunge to Record on Global-Growth Woes | Bloomberg
U.S. 10-year Treasuries rose for an eighth day, the longest winning streak in two years, after yields yesterday slid as much as 34 basis points, or 0.34 percentage point, when retail sales fell more than analysts forecast.
● Falling oil prices shake up global economies | AP
A sudden plunge in the price of oil is sending economic and political shockwaves around the world. Oil exporting countries are bracing for potentially crippling budget shortfalls and importing nations are benefiting from the lowest prices in four years.
● Fed survey finds moderate growth nationwide | AP
The U.S. economy was strengthening in most regions of the country in September to early October, helped by gains in consumer spending, manufacturing and commercial construction, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest survey of business conditions.
● Analysis: Risk Gauges Flashing Warning Signs; Red or Yellow? | MNI
The various instruments the market uses to gauge risk have been flashing warning signs this week, although the jury is out about whether the signals are blinking red for “stop” or yellow “to proceed with caution.”