The crowd is getting anxious after the recent jump in stock market volatility, which typically accompanies falling prices. Last week the VIX Index—a widely followed measure of short-term expectations of market volatility—rose to 21.24 on Friday, the highest level since the spike in February to 21.44. The increase is “a dangerous sign because we’ll have broken through some resistance,” Donald Selkin, chief market strategist for National Securities Corp., tells Bloomberg.
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● IMF Warns of Global Financial Risk From Fiscal Policies | NY Times
As global leaders sounded the alarm about a slowing world economy, a more immediate concern drew the attention of policy makers at the International Monetary Fund’s semiannual meetings last week: inflated asset prices and increasing levels of debt overseas.
● China Trade Data Exceed Expectations | Wall Street Journal
China’s exports and imports rose faster than expected in September, providing a modicum of good news as the world’s second-largest economy searches for sources of growth to meet its 7.5% annual target.
● Draghi-Weidmann fight intensifies as ECB debates action | Irish Times
Mario Draghi and Jens Weidmann are clashing anew over how much more stimulus the ailing euro-area economy needs from the European Central Bank. As Europe’s woes again proved the chief concern at weekend meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, President Draghi repeated he’s ready to expand the ECB’s balance sheet by as much as €1 trillion to beat back the threat of deflation.
● Fed Officials Say Slow World Growth Could Delay Rate Rise | Bloomberg
Federal Reserve policy makers said a slowdown in the world economy could undermine the U.S. expansion and prompt them to delay raising interest rates.
● Privately, Saudis tell oil market: get used to lower prices | Reuters
Saudi Arabia is quietly telling oil market participants that Riyadh is comfortable with markedly lower oil prices for an extended period, a sharp shift in policy that may be aimed at slowing the expansion of rival producers including those in the U.S. shale patch.
● Lower oil prices | Econobrowser
Thanks to horizontal drilling to get oil out of tight underground formations, U.S. field production of crude was 2 million barrels/day higher in 2013 than it had been in 2011. And the EIA’s new Short-Term Energy Outlook released this week expects we’ll add another 2 million b/d over the next two years. That’s unquestionably enough to start moving the world price.