The US economic trend remained positive through early October, albeit at readings near the lower range posted so far this year, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +7.9% yesterday (October 7). Although that’s well down from the year-to-date peak of +16.0% in late-August, the current levels are still associated with economic growth. The consistent run of positive numbers in recent history suggests that business cycle risk remains low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future.
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● Growth worries grip stocks, oil | Reuters
European stock markets fell for a second day on Wednesday, pushing world share indexes back towards their lowest in six months as concern mounts over the strength of global economic growth.
● Fed’s Dudley Says Bets on Mid-2015 Rate Hike Reasonable | Wall St Journal
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said Tuesday the U.S. central bank can likely hold off on raising short-term interest rates until 2015 given the expected path of the economy.
● Global Growth Disappoints, Recovery Pace Uneven & Country-Specific | IMF
The IMF forecasts global growth to average 3.3 percent in 2014―unchanged from 2013―and to rise to 3.8 percent in 2015.
● US job openings at 13-year high in August | US Labor Dept
There were 4.8 million job openings on the last business day of August, up from 4.6 million in July, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
● US Consumer credit growth decelerates to 9-mo low in Aug | Federal Reserve
In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5%.
● Bundesbank’s Weidmann Criticizes ECB’s Stimulus | Wall St Journal
German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann criticized the European Central Bank’s decision to buy private-sector bonds and chastised France for budgetary laxness, taking a hard line against new stimulus just before high-level International Monetary Fund meetings.