The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline slightly to 58.1 in tomorrow’s update for September vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The estimate is still well above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook remains firmly in growth territory.
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Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to rise 204,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected monthly gain matches August’s increase.
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The Treasury market’s inflation forecast via 10-year Notes continues to fall and the US stock market has turned wobbly too. That’s a troubling combination… if it continues. The antidote to this mini re-run of heightened disinflation risk is economic growth. This week’s updates on payrolls will stress test the case for expecting moderate growth to roll on, starting with tomorrow’s estimate on private-sector jobs for September via ADP, followed by Friday’s official numbers from the Labor Department. Meantime, Mr. Market is downsizing his outlook for inflation. The yield spread on the nominal 10-year Note less its inflation-indexed counterpart slipped to 1.95% yesterday (Sep. 29)—the lowest in more than a year.
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