The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rise slightly to +0.29 in Monday’s update for August, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The projection is marginally above July’s +0.25 reading, which reflected above-average economic growth relative to the historical trend. Only values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate for August, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth at a moderately above-trend pace.
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The latest economic releases look wobbly in some corners–yesterday’s report on housing starts, for example. But the monthly comparisons for several indicators, although weak, appear to be noise at this time in terms of evaluating the business cycle. Indeed, reviewing macro conditions across a broad set of figures still points to growth. True, the outlook for expecting an acceleration in economic activity has fallen on hard times again. But the moderate expansion that’s prevailed lately will likely roll on, based on the August update of a diversified set of 14 economic and financial indicators.
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