Phil DeMuth at Conservative Wealth Management (and the author of several finance titles, including The Affluent Investor) just posted a Q&A at Forbes.com with yours truly on a topic that receives slightly more than average attention at The Capital Spectator: the business cycle. A sample of the discussion follows below. For the full interview, jump over to Forbes.
Continue reading →

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed under 2.35% last week, the lowest in more than a year. Oil prices are soft as well these days, with the spot price for West Texas Intermediate slipping into the mid-$90 range for the first time since early February. Some pundits are also pointing to last week’s flat retail sales report for July as a signal for arguing that the US economy is headed for trouble. The New York Post over the weekend “reviewed” the numbers and decided to invoke the “R” word, advancing this gem of empirical analysis to drum up fear on Main Street: “During recessions and weak growth, energy prices do fall.”
Continue reading →

Housing starts are expected to total 937,000 in tomorrow’s update for July, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents a moderate increase vs. the previously reported 893,000 for June.
Continue reading →