The economic trend for the US remained positive in early August, albeit at a relatively subdued level in comparison with recent history, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +7.7% yesterday (August 5), or near the lowest level in two years. The latest reading is also well below MMRI’s recent peak of +13.7% in mid-June of this year. Nonetheless, the persistent run of positive numbers suggests that business cycle risk remains low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future.
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