The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline to +0.10 in tomorrow’s update for June, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The projection is moderately below the previously released +0.18 reading for May, which reflected above-average economic growth relative to the historical trend. Only values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate for June, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth, and at a moderately above-trend pace.
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